Method
What four new polls did to the forecast
We nearly doubled the 2026 poll count this week. Here is exactly how much it moved, which is less than you would guess and in a direction worth knowing.
Analysis
Analysis
There is no majority in the 2026 map
Both blocs are short of 61, and neither is close enough for the gap to be noise. That is the forecast, and it has a history.
Method
Why we will not print a vote share
Every poll we can read reports seats, not percentages. Converting one to the other would look like more precision and deliver less.